When looking at all the games for the weekend, one of the first things that you should try to do, is spot a great home team. A great home team, will normally be one that is severely underpriced and obliges you to put a lot of risk in order to get a reward. Fortunately, sometimes the bookies underestimate a good home team, because of its away record.
Great Home Team Overall Record
To spot a great home team in football, one of the first things you should consider, is its record at home. This might sound like something obvious, but most people tend to look at the overall record of teams, and forget that they are sometimes biased when playing home or away.
A great home team, will normally lose very little games at home and also tends not to draw too much. So spotting a team that percentage-wise is really good at home, will automatically give you an edge.
Total Goals Against at Home per Game
The second metric that helps spot a great home team in football, is the Total Goals Against metric, when playing at home. This is a very important metric, because it helps understand how good a defense this home team has.
This stat is sometimes undervalued, especially when a team scores too many goals. But, when the going gets tough, it is the home team with great defense that will prevail. If a team is not accustomed to defending well, the minute they struggle offensively, they will end up in defeat.
A great home team, will normally have a positive combination of the two above mentioned stats. If any of the above stats are negative, you should start looking for another team for the weekend.
Total Goals For at Home per Game
The third statistic to look at in order to spot a great home team, is the total goals scored at home per game. I place this stat as the third in relevance of importance, because the saying is there for a reason: “Great defenses win championships”.
Having a great offense is definitely an excellent position to be in, but great offenses with lousy defenders will struggle nonetheless.
It is very important to look at the average in goals for, as we did as well in the goals against category. A great home team can sometimes score 6 goals in a game, but score only 1 goal in the subsequent 2 games, and average 2.67 goals per game.
Therefore, don’t be fooled by averages, always take a deeper look. I recommend to take a look first at the average, and spot a great home team by going through their matches one by one.
If you are still in doubt of what to look for, please refer to: 7 Important Factors to Accurately Predict a Football Match
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