You will later learn that I personally prefer the Draw No Bet market, or eliminating a possibly harming outcome, but when looking at the 1X2 market and picking a favorite, try to pick a team that doesn’t draw as much.
If you are placing your eyes on the 1X2 market, you need to find a value pick in a football match. So often you will find teams priced at 1.20 or even below, and the market swarms towards them. More often than not, these teams draw or even lose. You need 5 winners at 1.20 to double your money. On the other hand, one loss out of five, will leave you down 0.20 units.
Therefore, if you are to pick a strong favorite, here are five strong indicators you should always look at to consider them a value pick:
Take a Close Look at their Defense
The first point of contact, to consider a value pick in a football match, is the team’s defense. As stated in 3 Unique Ways to Spot a Great Home Team in Football, defense wins championships. A strong team with a weak defense, will achieve wins through luck, but will not be sustainable. A team priced at around 1.20 will need a great defense to garner my attention. Pick a team you are comfortable with. Pick a team that will create value by shutting down opposing offenses. A value pick in a football match needs to inspire confidence.
But, why focus on defense first? If a team can’t shut down opposing offenses, they are not a value pick. This is the reason why Atlético Madrid are such a great play most of the time (barring their draws), and why Simeone’s style is conducive to value. This is also why a team like Juventus dominates the Serie A even through rough offensive batches.
Take their Draw percentage into account
The second strong indicator of a value pick in a football match is drawing percentage. Don’t pick a team that draws too much, your money will be lost because of it. As stated in 7 Important Factors to Accurately Predict a Football Match, drawing is what makes bookies rich. The 1X2 market is particularly profitable for them, because it proposes three options to choose from, but the vast majority of tipsters take a look at only two of the possible outcomes.
You will later learn that I personally prefer the Draw No Bet market, or eliminating a possibly harming outcome, but when looking at the 1X2 market and picking a favorite, try to pick a team that doesn’t draw as much. Drawing is like a virus: a team that does it regularly, will pull the other team to doing it. In other words, beware of the draw.
Review Home and Away records
The third strong indicator of a value pick in a football match, is the home or away indicator of that particular team. A very strong team at home, doesn’t necessarily play as well out on the road. Don’t be fooled by either of the records.
Be sure to investigate and research as most as possible. Take into account neutral grounds, neutral crowds and or empty stadiums. There are teams that thrive on fan pressure. Make sure to factor in those scenarios into account, as many teams have suffered from no motivation by the crowd noise.
Manager Head to Head Records
Another strong indicator of a value pick, is the Manager Head to Head records. This indicator might not always play a huge part in the decision, but it is worth noting and analyzing.
Certain managers have an edge over their counterparts, and have had an edge for eternity. If you find yourself picking a team that has a manager with an edge, this will create much more confidence in the pick. A manager having an edge can a lot of times be the tiebreaker.
Most managers have their playing scheme well defined and bring such scheme to a new club. Therefore, a manager that is great against a particular scheme, will most likely keep succeeding in the long run. Always beware and never take for granted managers that have lost a lot against a certain counterpart. Remember that statistics shows us that the underdog will inevitably win at least once.
Record at Playing Ground
Last, but not least, a strong indicator is the record of the team at the playing ground in question. Take a good look at how your pick has fared at this stadium, on the month they are playing, and if they’ve struggled recently.
I remember investigating Arsène Wenger and Arsenal back around the 2008 season, when they went to play Dynamo Kiev in the Champions League, and blinding missing the fact that Arsenal had not won against Kiev, in Ukraine, in a match played after October, for more than 16 years. Obviously, that didn’t fare to well for the English side and the Ukrainians got the win.
Some grounds are difficult for certain teams, whether it is because of the pitch’s dimensions, weather or travel arrangements. All of these factors should be taken into account, when deciding if a team is strong at a particular situation or ground.
Remember always to investigate thoroughly. You can find more information and tips on the two articles I linked in the course of this post, and please don’t hesitate to leave a message or comment.
