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Predicting the outcome of a football match is not an easy task; doing it on a direct basis in the 1X2 market, is even slightly harder.

This market is by far one of the markets with the most take for bookies, and favorites are seldom underpriced.

There are a lot of things you should look at when analyzing data for a direct result, but here are seven things to take into account in order to get a better idea of who might be the actual match winner:

Home Team Performance

The first stat to look at, is the home team’s performance overall. In football, home advantage is a crucial factor to matches, as teams feel more comfortable playing at home than abroad, and several teams even have serious antics when treating visiting teams.

I wouldn’t advise looking at only a five to ten game span, it is normally not enough information. I like to generally look at the whole season’s performance, and if it is the first games of the season, at least last season’s home performance for the home team.

Strength of schedule for the home team

The teams that the home team has faced, and their strength are equally as important as its record. A home team can have impeccable record if it has faced the lower four or five teams in the league, but will struggle and lose to a top team.

Or, a home team can be really bad against teams in its same qualification zone, but might be a force when it plays superior teams.

The importance of evaluating a team’s strength of played schedule can’t be stressed enough. It is not the same to have a perfect record against the top 5 teams in the league, than to have a perfect record against the bottom 5 teams in the league.

This will influence your decision on to whether the home team is actually good or bad, at home.

Away Team Performance

Much like for the home team, it is also very important to check how the away team has been performing away from home. There are certain teams in different leagues that are brutal forces away from home. Some really good teams like Manchester City, Barcelona or Real Madrid, might be difficult to analyze when playing away from home, because their strength generally outmatches their opponents. Nonetheless, you should be able to pick apart teams like Getafe, Valencia, Sevilla, in the Spanish league, to name a few.

Picking a good away team, will most likely give you an edge, as they are generally overpriced just because they are playing away from home. If you look at the prices given for teams like Manchester City, Barcelona or Real Madrid when they play away from home, and you average them with the prices they get when playing at home, you will notice that the average payout will be much higher when playing away.

Strength of schedule for the away team

Again, the strength of schedule for the away team, and the opponents it has faced, will give you a good indication of how good this team is and if it has a chance to come away with a win. There are a lot of teams that go for broke when they play away from home, because they strive in making their home ground a fortress. You just need to find those teams that are consistent and get generally good results away, against strong teams, so that you can pick a likely winner.

The percentage of draws

The best result for bookies all around the world, when it comes to a football match, is a draw. For some reason, bettors are inclined more often than not, to pick a winner, instead of picking a draw. There are some great bettors that have managed to spot the draw and have been able to predict it consistently, but it is something that takes years of analysis and luck to achieve.

One of the best things to look at, is to see how often the home team draws at home, and in general; as well as how often the away team draws away from home and in general. You will find, that more often than not, the away team is more prone to drawing away from home, than the home team is prone to drawing at their home ground. You need to make sure that you are able to pick them apart, so that you are left with an informed decision. It is sometimes helpful to understand matchups throughout the league, and spot if the league generally has a high percentage of draws. This might be useful to reveal patterns.

Away team’s scoring and home team’s reaction capability

This factor is a little bit more difficult to spot out to the naked eye, but is a very strong indicator of how the match could go. It is very important to identify if the away team is prone to scoring first, and if the home team might be able to react promptly throughout the match to turn things around.

Now, you might be asking, why should we look at this from the away side’s point of view in order to predict the match outcome?

The answer is simpler than you think. Away sides typically look for a positive result when away from home, and a draw is considered a good result unless you are a top-tier team looking to clinch the title. Generally, teams looking to avoid relegation, try to keep a fortress at home and take as much points as they can on the road. This is typical in English football and will be true for many leagues.

Therefore, away teams that score first, will usually retrieve and try to defend their lead. Most of the times, when they play a good home team, this will likely end up in a draw, but we want to understand how often this away team can get advantage, and how often this home team can get back into the game and win it outright.

If you can’t find enough evidence to sustain that the home team can come back from an early goal against, then you might probably be looking at a draw in the making.

Injuries and Suspensions

A point most of the times overlooked is the amount of injuries and suspensions a team has for the match, but I need to emphasize that this is as important as any of the other six variables that have been stated above. Injuries play a defining role in the tactics the manager will be able to utilize, in the capability of plays that the team might generate, and the quality of play that they can accomplish.

Suspensions play the same pivotal role, most often on defense than on offense. Defenders tend to get suspended more often than attackers, and most of the times, these suspensions come after accumulations of yellow cards throughout the season. It is very important to keep track of this stat through the stat sites, as a missing player can influence your decision on if and when a team can perform and predicting the right outcome.

Please make sure that you leave a comment or question if you want further information on any of these seven points.