The Diamondbacks and Cardinals close out the series this Sunday afternoon, with two great pitchers going head to head. Both Zack Greinke and Adam Wainwright have been pitching well this year and on paper, this game is destined for the Under, right?
Looking at Zack Greinke’s numbers, he is 10-3 on the year with an ERA of 2.73; away from home, he is 6-2 with a 2.47 ERA. Looking at only day games, he has posted a 5-1 record, with an ERA of 2.37. He has definitely been playing well on the road, and better in day games than night games.
Adam Wainwright, comes into this game with a 5-7 record and posting an ERA of 4.31. Wainwright is a day games pitcher, as he has been perfect this year with 3 wins, and an ERA of 2.25. When he’s pitching at home, he has a 4-2 record with a 2.68 ERA.
On paper, Greinke has the small edge and the Diamondbacks have the small edge, but I am going to go further into the numbers and look at their first five innings ERA.
Greinke has pitched in 92.2 innings in the first five, allowing 29 runs in that stretch, which takes his ERA to 2.83. Wainwright on the other hand, has pitched in 75.1 innings on the same game stretch, and has allowed 33 runs, which gives him an ERA of 3.95 in the first five innings of games.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks (0) to win first five innings at -127
I am taking the Diamondbacks to win the first five innings against Wainwright’s 3.95 ERA in this stretch. Greinke has the upper hand by a bit more than 1 run in this season, and let’s hope that he keeps the same momentum going.
Bonus Pick: Over 4.5 runs in first five innings at +100
The numbers show a combined 6.78 ERA by both pitchers on the first five innings, yet their total ERA tends to bring the odds to a positive. I am going to take the over for the first five innings.
Bonus Pick 2: Under 8.5 runs in total game at -125
Although I am taking the over for the first five innings, I am not seeing many more runs than those scored during the first five. Both Greinke and Wainwright, combine for an ERA of 4.62 in day games, and 5.15 when Greinke pitches away and Wainwright pitches home. So, I am taking the over 4.5, but I don’t think there will be more than 8 runs in the game.
