The Arizona Diamondbacks pay the San Diego Padres a visit tonight, with Robbie Ray pitching for the visitors and Dinelson Lamet pitching for the Padres.
On paper, this looks like a tight matchup between two pitchers with an ERA around 4.00 when in conditions similar to the ones that will be present tonight.
Robbie Ray had a 6-6 record last year away from home, and a 4.50 ERA when not pitching in Arizona. That number increased to 4.79 when pitching in Night Games, where he obtained a 10-5 record. His strikeout ratio was around 30-31% during both instances. These ERA numbers reflect the worst of Ray’s splits unfortunately, so it means that he is not at his best when playing away from home at night, in terms of runs allowed.
Dinelson Lamet had an 0-3 record at home last year, posting a 5.25 ERA in that span. He also had a 3-4 record (his only 3 wins of the season) while playing at night, and posted a 4.00 ERA in those games. As with Ray, Lamet is not at his best in these circumstances, so I expect the Diamondbacks to also take advantage of this.
Pick: Over 8.0 runs at 1.90
