The Atlanta Braves face off the San Diego Padres on a night game at Petco Park. The pitchers for this game are Julio Teheran for the Braves and Joey Lucchesi for the Padres.
It won’t be an easy matchup for either of them, although Joey Lucchesi looks to be stronger on paper. He comes to this game with a 3.94 ERA and 92 Ks. When it comes to home games, he has a 6-2 record with a 2.76 ERA, contrasting with Julio Teheran’s away record of 2-4 with a 4.61 ERA. Needless to say, it is a tale of two opposites when we look at those stats alone.
But, if we dig deeper, we can see that Lucchesi’s ERA for night games, goes up to 3.90 with a split record of 4-4. Teheran is still 3-5 with a 4.67 ERA, which is consistent with his away record. Lucchesi’s first five innings’ ERA on the season is 3.36, while Teheran’s ERA is 3.88.
All numers indicate a high scoring first half of the game, and no clear winner, as the numers are too close to call. Although Lucchesi has the upper hand on most of the ERA numbers, Teheran just pitched 6 shut out innings on his last appeareance without taking a win.
I’m taking an over 4.5 on the first five innings, and an over 8.5 on the total game.
First Pick: Over 4.5 first five innings at -123.
Second Pick: Over 8.5 at -118.
Bonus Pick: ATL +106
For those of you that read the numbers, this game is too close to call, with a high scoring probability on both ends. I particularly like this bonus pick because Lucchesi has a high ERA on the second inning, allowing a 6.35 ERA. If things don’t go too well, he might be heading to the showers early and it will be all Braves ball after that.
