After posting a perfect record yesterday, with the Texas Rangers pushing if you took the (0) option or winning if you took the (+0.5) option, and the Atlanta Braves winning in extra innings against the San Diego Padres, with both the first five innings over and the total over coming into place; we are off to the Sunday picks.
Today, the Nationals face the Phillies with Anibal Sanchez starting for Washington, while Jake Arrieta starts for Philadelphia. Both Sanchez and Arrieta come into the game with ERAs over the 3.5 mark, and the Phillies are getting the home field advantage mark.
If we look at the first five innings ERA of both pitchers, we find that Sanchez has posted a 3.40 ERA with the fourth inning being his worst at a 7.80 ERA, versus Arrieta’s 4.25 ERA over the first five innings of games, and the third inning being his worst at 10.00 ERA allowing 20 earned runs in 18 pitched innings.
Anibal Sanchez has a 3.56 ERA on his Away Games, while posting a 3.66 ERA on Day Games. Jake Arrieta on the contrary, has a 4.50 ERA on his Home Games, while posting a 4.28 ERA on Day Games.
This looks to be a high scoring affair, and the pundits are stating the total at Over 10.5, so this matchup could go either way.
Pick: Washington Nationals (0) to win first five innings at -110
As you may have noticed, Sanchez has a better ERA on the first five innings than Arrieta, and he is coming off two months of low ERA, posting 1.65 in May and 2.76 in June. I am taking the Nationals to win the first five innings, without taking a tie into account.
Pick: WAS over 4.5 runs at -147
As you might have guessed, I am also going with Washington scoring 5 runs or more. Arrieta has posted a 4.25 ERA on the first five innings, and he posted a 4.50 ERA in May, as well as a 5.65 ERA in June. His 4.50 ERA in Home Games and his 4.28 ERA in Day Games, don’t help his cause as well.
Bonus Pick: WAS to win at -102
