After posting a difficult 4-6 record on Sunday, we look to bounce back with 7 official picks on Monday. This time, I am putting them all in one place, to make them easier to track.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Luis Castillo faces off against Kyle Hendricks, at Chicago. Castillo has posted a 1.65 ERA in night games and a 3.21 ERA, he is undefeated at night games. Kyle Hendricks has a 1.65 ERA at home, with one loss, and a 3.88 ERA at night. Both pitchers have a pretty defined trend coming into the game. While Castillo has had two good months, posting a June ERA of 2.83 and a 0.00 ERA in 7.2 innings this month, Hendricks has given up a 4.42 ERA in June and a 5.14 ERA in July so far.
Pick: Taking Cincinnati at +120 to win the game
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
A rivalry game between the Blue Jays and Red Sox is about to take place on Monday at Fenway Park. Porcello opens up for the home side with a 5.02 ERA at home this year, and a 4.09 ERA at night. His counterpart will be Thornton, with a 3.60 ERA away, and a 6.32 ERA at night. Both pitchers have disastrous 1st five innings ERAs, totalling a combined 11.48 ERA (5.33 for Thornton and 5.15 for Porcello).
If we isolate the Night and Away games for Thornton, his ERA lowers to 4.19. Thornton is yet to win away from home this year, and has not posted numbers to be proud of. On the other hand, Porcello has not been an ace himself.
Everything points to having a high scoring affair in the first five innings, but the line is too high to take. I am instead going to recommend taking the total line.
Pick: Over 10.5 runs in the game at -115
Bonus Pick: TOR +1.5 at -119
Porcello has been struggling at home and at night, so look for a high scoring affair that can go either way. Division rivals face each other way too many times, and the underdogs tend to take several games when away.
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Paxton starts for the Yankees at home, where he is currently averaging a 3.26 ERA. This number goes up when we look at his first five innings of pitching, averaging 4.02, and it rises even more if we look at his night games, standing at 4.38.
On the other side, the Rays will start Snell, who is averaging a horrendous 6.48 ERA away from home. His night games ERA is not so bad at 4.66, but his first five innings rise up to 5.48 ERA.
I have several picks for this game, that all come in the same direction:
Picks:
NYY over 4.5 runs at -109
NYY to win at -145
Over 4.5 runs in the first five innings at -122
Over 8.5 runs game total at -112
Snell has given up too many runs during the first five innings and I expect the Yankees to actually make the Over 4.5 by themselves in this span, bringing us their total to the needed quota. The Yankees have been getting their batting power back, and I expect them to keep the runs coming during the course of the game.
Paxton doesn’t have a terrific ERA at home, so this should help the Rays’ cause and give us the Over 8.5 after the total stretch of the game.
Remember to place the same units per pick, in order to be able to calculate the correct unit earnings measurement.
Other Free Picks:
I am going to post here other Free Picks that I will take during the day, but that will not count into the Official Unit Total I am reporting every day.
NYY -1.5 to win at +145 (based on Snell’s 6.48 ERA away vs Paxton’s 3.26 at home)
NYY vs TB +5.5 runs on first five innings at +132 (based on the combined 9.50 ERA of both pitchers)
PHI to win vs LAD at +145
PHI +1.5 to win vs LAD at -112
PHI +0.5 on first five innings at -110
Under 7.5 PHI vs LAD at +195
Kershaw has a 3.09 ERA on the year, but a 3.99 ERA away and a 3.10 ERA on night games. He has struggled when the Dodgers don’t score 6 or more runs, only winning one game with that condition. His interleague ERA this year is 2.84 and his ERA with catcher Austin Barnes is 3.28.
Eflin on the other hand, has a 3.78 ERA this year, but a 3.04 ERA at home. His WHIP lowers to 1.141 at home vs his 1.443 away. His interleague ERA this year has been a tremendous 0.56 and his ERA with catcher Andrew Knapp is at 2.41.
Eflin will have his hands full with the Dodger lineup, but he will make them struggle, which in turn does not help Kershaw’s cause of need for runs. I am not making the picks official, because it is definitely a stretch analysis, but that is the logic behind it.
